zohreh eskandaripour; marzieh esfandiari; nazar dahmarde; Mohammad Hassan Fotros
Abstract
Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government ...
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Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government budget on the performance (profitability) of the country's banking system in the form of 12 scenarios based on the profitability response of the banking network to 2%, 5% and 10 Shock% was addressed in the mentioned variables. For this purpose, research data were collected from the SAM matrix of the Majles Research Center in 2011 and the data-output table of the Central Bank in 2016. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic calculus model (RDCGE) and Math Lab software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the informal exchange rate and crude oil prices have an inverse effect and the total government stock index and budget have a direct effect on the profitability of the banking network; So that if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the informal exchange rate, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.73, 2.01 and 2.57%, respectively. Also, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the price of crude oil, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.41, 1.63 and 2.03%, respectively. In addition, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the total stock index, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.47, 0.97 and 1.52%, respectively. Finally, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the government budget, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.38, 0.44 and 0.61%, respectively.
zohreh eskandaripour; marzieh Esfandiari
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to study the degree of exchange rate fluctuation in import prices under environmental uncertainty conditions with an emphasis on dietary changes during the period 1962-1392. Therefore, the EGARCH model and the Markov rotational approach are used. The results of unstable ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to study the degree of exchange rate fluctuation in import prices under environmental uncertainty conditions with an emphasis on dietary changes during the period 1962-1392. Therefore, the EGARCH model and the Markov rotational approach are used. The results of unstable modeling showed that negative and positive shocks are asymmetrically contributing to the formation of uncertainty in the variables of exchange rate, GDP and oil revenues. Based on the results of the Markov rotary model approach, the relationship between import price and its fundamental variables follows a two-mode pattern. Based on the results, the exchange rate, GDP, trade openness and the price of imported goods exported positively and significantly on the price of imported goods. The degree of exchange rate fluctuation in terms of environmental uncertainty in both regimes is more than one unit. The uncertainties of the fixed component increase the rate of exchange rate over the import price, and in addition, the slope of the exchange rate on import prices is also affected by environmental uncertainties. Meanwhile, the role of uncertainty of GDP in increasing the slope of the exchange rate is positive and is very high in relation to the effects of uncertainty in exchange rates and oil revenues.
nazar dahmardeh; Marzieh Esfandiari; zohreh eskandaripour
Abstract
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected ...
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Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected that the insurance industry will be able to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and distribution of income, taking into account the function of risk distribution and its compensation, as well as its role in financial development. To test this hypothesis, here has used of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach during the period 1975-2016.
The results showed that the development of the insurance industry could provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution in the short run. But in the long run, it will only lead to economic growth. However, in the long run, it could be reliant on human and physical capital for simultaneous access to economic growth and the distribution of income. Also, based on the error correction model, 88.2% and 68.1% of the non-equilibrium related to the non-oil per capita gross domestic product and Gini coefficient are adjusted in each period, respectively.
Theoretical framework
In The second half of the 20th century onwards, especially since the 1970s, following widening the income gap between the poor and the rich as well as the development in public awareness, it has been emphasized on increasing the quality of life (Mehregan & Salarian, 2008:13). In general, classical and neoclassical economists believe that an uneven distribution of income can have a positive effect on the growth process, while others such as Mirdal and Sen believe that economic growth entails an improvement in income distribution and in fact considers the reduction of inequality necessary (Khodadad Kashi & Heidari, 2008: 153). However, if economic growth and improvement in income distribution are considered two essential components of economic development, there are three strategies for development (Sharifzadegan, 2007: 23-24):
A) Growth then Redistribution (GTR): Accordingly, with economic growth and the creation of vast economic capacities and enlarging the size of the economy, the conditions for employment is automatically provided for all social and income groups, thereby achieving a balanced income distribution.
B) Redilribution then Growth (RTG): In this strategy, comprehensive resources are mainly spent on proper distribution of income, and investment on economic growth and attention to it comes at a lower level, and practically undermines the social capacity of the community. Many experiences and studies show that in the long run, this policy will not achieve a balanced distribution of income or economic growth.
C) Growth with Redistribution (GWR): This strategy emphasizes that income redistribution cannot work without relying on a booming economy. In this strategy, executive policies should be able to work both for economic growth and for income distribution. The development of the insurance industry with the aim of fostering economic growth and improving income distribution can also be considered as one of the policies of this strategy.
Methodology
In this section, the following two econometric models are considered to examine the effects of the development of the insurance industry on economic growth and income distribution:
(1)
(2)
In the empirical studies, the variable level of income is present in the income distribution model, but the present study assumes that the level of income of individuals affected by physical wealth (physical capital or CAPL) and human wealth and capital (skill, expertise, and education level or HCAP). Accordingly, the LHCAP and LCAPL variables are used in the income distribution model instead of the natural logarithm of the income level. The research models for the period 1975-2016 will be estimated using the ARDL method.
Result and discussion
Because dynamic short-run interactions between variables are not considered in OLS method, the use of this method in estimating the long-run relationship does not necessarily yield unbiased estimation. Therefore, it seems reasonable that in such cases those models be considered that have short-term dynamics and thus make the model coefficients more accurately estimated. The ARDL method is a dynamic model that allows to estimate the long-run coefficients of the model with appropriate accuracy in addition to the cointegration test between variables (Nofersti, 2008). The main advantage of using the ARDL method is that regardless of whether the research variables have unit root in levels or some become stationary by one time differentiation, a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables can be obtained.
Conclusion
Achieving high economic growth coupled with improved income distribution has always been a major concern for policymakers in developing countries. In this regard, based on their historical experiences and those of other countries as well as the theoretical and empirical studies, countries prefer the strategy of Growth with Redistribution over GTR strategy or vice versa. On the other hand, insurance is expected to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution, given its functional role in risk distribution and compensation as well as its role in financial development. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested for the Iranian economy over the period 1975-2016 using the ARDL method.
The results of estimating income distribution model as ARDL (1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1) showed that insurance penetration factor variables had a negative effect on Gini coefficient immediately and with a one-year lag. Oil revenues also have an impact on the Gini coefficient similar to that of the insurance industry, with its effect initially positive and negative with a one-year lag. But human capital with a two- and three-year lag and physical capital with a three-year lag have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient. Also, the results of estimation of economic growth model as ARDL (2,1,2,2,0) showed that development of insurance industry has positive and immediate effect on economic growth. The variables of human and physical capital have a positive significant lagged and non-lagged effect, and business openness variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth after one-year lag.
zahra nasrollahi; Razieh Tyebi; Azadeh fotovat; zohreh Eskandaripour
Abstract
Introduction
Internationalization of financial markets has caused what is happening in a country to be felt quickly in other countries. This affects the returns and risks of securities listed in the stock exchange; therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze the relationship between stock markets ...
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Introduction
Internationalization of financial markets has caused what is happening in a country to be felt quickly in other countries. This affects the returns and risks of securities listed in the stock exchange; therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze the relationship between stock markets properly. For this purpose, two goals are pursued in this paper; investigating the impact of the Indian and Turkish stock markets on the Iranian stock market, and investigating the effect of the Iranian stock market on the stock markets of India and Turkey.
Theoretical Framework
The past decade has experienced financial and economic crises affecting economic development and evaluation principles. Due to the turbulence of the crisis, financial analysts and market participants feared that the overflow of the crisis into other economies might boost instability in global financial markets. Experience has shown that the effects and the extent of the spread of crises vary in scope and quality. For example, the financial turmoil in the Turkish stock market in 2001 was completely independent and had no impact on other markets (Desai, 2003), while Mexican and Asian crises had regional implications (Glyctic & Rose, 1999). In contrast, the Russian financial crisis of 1998 increased the volatility of global security of markets with enormous adventures (International Settlement Bank, 1999).
Today, financial markets are moving towards integration more than before, and countries have close economic relations in addition to their cultural and political ties. This is in many respects positive, but it also brings about many changes in the financial and economic system of countries (Ahmadzadeh, Heydari & Zolfaghari, 2012).
According to experts, since the recession in the United States and European countries, which led to bank failures and subsequent downsizing in the economy of these countries, the demand for energy and oil will reduce world oil prices. Some countries (e.g., oil-dependent economies) will face with lots of problems. At the outset of the crisis, it was a misconception that Iran would not take any effect from this crisis and could even be an ideal opportunity for the Iranian economy, but over time, the effects of the crisis put new challenges to the Iranian economy including a dramatic drop in oil revenues, a recession in the global market, decrease in non-oil exports, and consequently, drop of Tehran’s stock market.
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether fluctuations in the stock market of countries with which Iran has a good economic relationship is transferred to the stock market of Iran. For this purpose, two goals are pursued in this paper; investigating the impact of the Indian and Turkish stock markets on the Iranian stock market, and investigating the effect of the Iranian stock market on the stock markets of India and Turkey.
Methodology
In this regard, this relationship is examined as Couples between the stock market of Iran and stock markets of Turkey and India. In this research, which focuses on the fluctuation modeling in the stock market of Iran and two Asian stock markets, a multivariate GARCH model has been developed which is used to examine the transmission of fluctuations between price indices of Iranian stock market, the Turkish stock market and the Indian stock market. The relationship between stock markets of Iran, Turkey and India has been evaluated using daily stock price data for the period 2007-2013 and the BEKK-GARCH model (Angel & Keroni, 1995).
Results and Discussion
The results show that the domestic markets with one-period lagged residual have a direct effect on all three countries. Regarding the domestic markets, the coefficients of ARCH and GARCH are significant for all three countries. This means that the fluctuations of the stock market index of the three countries of Iran, India and Turkey have a statistically significant relationship with previous fluctuations; however, no relationship between the Iranian stock market and the stock markets of India and Turkey was found. In other words, there is no apparent fluctuation transmission from the stock market index of Iran to Turkey, and vice versa. With respect to the Indian Stock exchange, the same results were achieved.
Although the international transfer of stock market volatility may affect the decisions made by the firm's capital budget, investors' consumption decisions, and other business cycles, under such circumstances, it may be argued that because of the insignificant relationship between the Iranian financial market and the global markets, the possibility of a crisis spreading from the Iranian economy to world markets is not possible, but there is still concern about the impact of the global economic crisis on the Iranian economy. Perhaps, its direct effect is to reduce global demand for crude oil, which will increase the pace of the global crisis in the Iranian economy, given the strong dependence of Iran's economic budget on oil revenues.
Seyyed Hosein Hoseini; zohreh eskandaripoor
Abstract
Extended Abstract
As one of the most important and basic economic development tools, the targeted subsidies plan (reforming relative prices system of subsidized revenue) can play a major role in clarifying and making competitive the business environment, increasing the efficiency of government programs ...
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Extended Abstract
As one of the most important and basic economic development tools, the targeted subsidies plan (reforming relative prices system of subsidized revenue) can play a major role in clarifying and making competitive the business environment, increasing the efficiency of government programs and policies, modifying consumption patterns, efficient allocation of resources and facilities and production factors, establishing the justice in the distribution of government support, etc. Thus, selection and determination of qualified individuals and target groups is a necessary condition for target attainment.
Methodology
For the purpose of the study, the following question was posed:
Whether the targeted subsidies plan could affect the combination of tax?
The statistical population included aware and clear sighted people about factors affecting tax income including experts of the tax organization. The statistical sample consisted of 35 persons and the method of sample selection was random sampling. After collecting questionnaires, data analysis was performed using SPSS software package. Given that the studied variable in this research is measured based on an interval scale, the following relations may be used to determine the sample size:
Where, r is the upper bound of the relative error determined previously, N is the size of population, S and are population’s parameters (error coefficient is and confidence coefficient in level of 99% is equal to ). The required sample size for each group of statistical population was obtained as the table below.
Table1: population and sample sizes
Group Population size Parameter estimation from initial sample Final sample size
mean Standard deviation
Taxes on revenues 35 3.14 0.92 28
The questionnaire queried the effectiveness of various factors on the amount of tax on revenue.
Validity of the Questionnaire
Validity means that the provided tool to what extent measure the considered specific concept (Secaran, 2001). The questionnaire used in this research has been validated according to theoretical foundations and the opinion of experts, intendants and advisers.
Reliabilityof the QuestionnaireIn order to calculate Cronbach alpha, it is firstly required that the variance of scores of each subset of questions be calculated and then the total variance be determined. Then by replacing them into the following formula the value of the Cronbach alpha will be obtained:
Where, k is the number of subsets of questionnaire or questions of questionnaire; is the variance of kth question and is the total variance.
Thus, Cronbach alpha reflected the amount of positive correlation of the members of a set with eachother
Table2: Cronbach alpha coefficient
Row Questionnaire Cronbach alpha coefficient
1 Taxes on revenues 0.818
Results and discussion
In order to get familiar with the manner of answers provided to the questionnaire and the significance level of each test, we firstly, using frequency tables, checked the answers and then, using t-student significance test, checked the mean of answers so that a clear result was obtained about the view of respondents on each question.
Table3. reports the results of evaluating frequency percentage of provided answers to independent variable questions (Taxes on revenue)
(%)
row Factor Increase so much increase Do not change decrease Decrease so much
1 Decreased export 3.6 7.1 35.7 53.6 0
2 Increased import 7.4 40.7 18.5 29.6 3.7
3 Decreased production 0 7.4 3.7 63 25.9
4 Increased prices general level 7.7 38.5 19.2 26.9 7.7
5 budget deficit 17.9 28.6 17.9 28.9 7.1
6 Income redistribution 7.7 57.7 19.2 11.5 3.8
7 Economic non-stability 10.7 14.3 10.7 46.4 17.9
8 Increased interest rate 11.5 15.4 15.4 42.3 15.4
9 International sanctions 10.7 14.3 10.7 39.3 25
10 Decreased sale revenues 10.7 3.6 7.1 57.1 21.4
11 Increased costs (the cost of production inputs and distribution costs) 7.1 10.7 10.7 53.6 17.9
12 Tendency to non-productive and non-standard jobs and activities (the growth of non-formal economy) 3.6 21.4 17.9 42.9 14.3
13 The existence of bargaining opportunity for unions 3.6 32.1 17.9 46.4 0
14 The lack of trust on government and public sector and organization’s performance 0 11.1 11.1 59.3 18.5
15 The false culture of tax evasion 0 11.1 11.1 55.6 22.2
16 Lack of declaring real incomes by the taxpayer at the time of diagnosis 0 0 7.7 61.5 30.8
17 Simplification of the financial system (with emphasis on reducing compliance costs and encouraging self-declaration) 21.4 50 17.9 10.7 0
18 shortage of skilled labor 0 0 14.3 60.7 25
19 Lack of transparency and aggregating the information of the taxpayer 0 3.6 10.7 71.4 14.3
20 Mechanization of declaration, detection and collection 17.9 71.4 .3.6 7.1 0
21 Lack of information flow from the tax organization to taxpayers 0 11.1 29.6 59.3 0
22 Lack of financial and judicial support for organization’s personnel 0 3.7 3.1 70.4 25.9
23 Organizational features 0 11.1 6.3 74.1 14.8.
24 Unsuitable performance of tax auditors 0 3.8 11.5 69.2 15.4
25 Weakness of regulations, circulars and instructions 0 3.8 7.7 57.7 30.8
26 The existence of broad legal exemptions 0 3.6 7.1 53.6 35.7
27 Failure to extend the value added tax system 5.7 0 8.6 18.6 17.1
28 On the head detection method 8.6 34.3 25.7 28.6 2.9
29 Introducing a new tax base (such as value added, total income, so on) 17.1 51.4 25.7 5.7 0
Now, after t-student test and understanding the relationship between research variables, we draw path analysis diagrams to understand the direct and indirect effects of dependent and independent variables. Path analysis of variables studied in this research question can be seen in Graph 1 below.
Graph 1: Path analysis of research variables (Taxes on revenue)
Mahmood Hooshmand; Mohammad Daneshnia; Zahra Abdollahi; Zohreh Eskandaripour
Abstract
The importance of non oil export and it’s role in economic deuelopment of Countnies , has been considered as value subject for a long time. More over , understanding and the rate of effect factors on non oil export may help export development . Therefore in this study Withy using 2SLS and statistic ...
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The importance of non oil export and it’s role in economic deuelopment of Countnies , has been considered as value subject for a long time. More over , understanding and the rate of effect factors on non oil export may help export development . Therefore in this study Withy using 2SLS and statistic from (1971-2009), it had assessed the effective factor in the Iranian non oil export .
We have shown that, the world’s income and real currency echange rate have a positive and significant effect on export demand. Governmental fundamental investment also has a positive effect in the non oil export .Although foreign direct investment and excess internal demands not have a significant effect on export, they show a positive and a negative coefficient, respectively.
